A War Started and the Position Did Nothing

Week of Feb 23–Mar 15, 2026

These are the three weeks this journal covers in one entry, because the trade log for them is empty. Not slow. Empty. One position on the books, a 2-lot /ES short strangle opened February 18, and not a single order against it for a month. What makes the stretch worth writing about is everything that happened around that silence: on February 28, war broke out in the Middle East, oil prices had one of the biggest runs in the history of the market, and stocks strung together losing week after losing week.

What actually happened

In the account: nothing. The strangle sat. That’s the entire log.

Around it: war began on February 28, and by early March Brent crude had jumped double digits, on its way to one of the largest monthly gains on record. Equities sold off in stages through early and mid March. Rate-cut expectations for 2026 started draining out of the market as energy prices pushed inflation fears back to the front.

The position’s strikes were 4500 on the put side and 7800 on the call side, with the S&P trading in the 6,000s throughout. A multi-week equity selloff during wartime, and the index never got within shouting distance of either strike. Short volatility positions still feel weeks like these through the marks, and the log doesn’t record what the position was showing day to day. What it records is that no order was placed, and that the next entry, the following Wednesday, is a buyback at a profit.

What moved the market this week?

The war was the market, for this entire stretch. Oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz became the daily headline, gasoline headed toward $4 a gallon, and stocks logged consecutive losing weeks. Connecting any of that to this account overstates things: the only decision the log shows is the decision not to act, and a strangle that wide is designed to make weeks like this survivable on the position side even when they’re not comfortable on the mark-to-market side.

Anything new tried?

No. The account’s second month was spent proving it could leave one position alone through a genuinely violent macro stretch. Given how much of this record later turns on discipline, three untouched weeks during the outbreak of a war are not the least interesting entry.

Takeaway

The first real stress test of the record wasn’t a trade, it was a hold. A war started nine days after the account’s first trade, and the response on the record is one month of silence followed by a profitable close. Whether that was conviction, distance from the strikes, or just not staring at the screen, the log doesn’t say. What it says is that the position survived to be closed on purpose.

Frequently asked questions

Did the Iran war affect this account's position?

The position was a 2-contract /ES short strangle with strikes at 4500 and 7800, sold February 18 for a 4.15 credit. War broke out on February 28 and equities fell for several weeks, but the S&P stayed thousands of points inside both strikes the entire time, and the log shows the position was never touched. It was closed at a profit the following week.

Why wasn't the strangle closed when the war started?

The log records no orders at all between February 18 and March 18, so the honest answer is that the record shows a hold and nothing else. What the structure says: a strangle that wide is a bet on a very large range, and the market never came close to leaving it.

What happened to oil prices during these weeks?

Brent crude went from around $72 a barrel before the war to roughly $80 within days, and March 2026 turned into one of the largest monthly oil price jumps on record as Gulf supply fell, with prices eventually peaking near $120.